Election Day Special Edition
I'm taking a break from recounting my tales of the Aegean to bring you my predictions and analysis on Election day.
There is a time stamp on this post, so you know that this is being written around 7:30 p.m. Turkish time and 9:30 a.m. California time.
I'm calling the house, senate and California races.
The House
At the end of the day, Democrats will win the house and the score for seats with key victories in the Pennsylvania and Ohio seats. Increased turnout for senate candidates like Robert Casey in Pennsylvania and Sherrod Brown in Ohio coupled with low GOP turnout will make these seats available.
At the end of the day it will be Dems 226, GOP 209 in the house. A 23 seat pick up for Democrats. Not bad, but beyond what some media analysts are calling for.
Races to watch: If Republican John Doolittle loses in the California second, the Democrats will win in far greater numbers than I predict.
The Senate
The Senate's not going to be such a route, but there will be some Democrat gains. I think the GOP and America will say goodbye to Senators Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania, Mike DeWine in Ohio, Lincoln Chaffee in Rhode Island and Conrad Burns in Montana.
The Democrats are going to keep all of their seats, unless California's Diane Feinstein can hold off the juggernaut Dick Mountjoy Campaign. (Insert laughs here.)
But not all Republicans will lose, just most of them. I think Michael Steele, the Republican candidate for the open Maryland Senate seat will win given his campaign's momentum of the last two weeks.
Republicans will hold off some decent challenges in Virginia and Missouri and keep the Tennessee seat being vacated by Bill Frist.
Final Score: GOP 53, Dems 47 (Lieberman counts as a Democrat and he will win by the way.)
California
My native state, the Golden State, with it's unofficial capitol of Palmdale.
Of course Arnold's going to win, but I think John Garamendi is going to join him as Lt. Governor. Incumbent Bruce McPherson will keep his seat as the Secretary of State, while Jerry Brown, good old Governor Moonbeam, will become the Attorney General.
John Chiang will become the state's controller while Bill Lockyer will become the state treasurer (I still can't believe the Antelope Valley Press endorsed Claude Parish. I know it's a Republican paper, but this guy is nuts.)
Steve Poizner will become the state's third Insurance Commissioner, despite Cruz Bustamante's clever commercials about how he promised his family to lose 70 pounds and he promises to lower your insurance rates.
I can't get into the propositions, because I am out of touch with how much ad time has been spent on all of them. I just hope and pray the California pleasure police don't pass Prop. 86, a tobacco tax that will do nothing for Californians looking for lower health care costs. Whether you smoke or not, should one group be punished because their habit or vice is unpopular? Remember, today they go after the smokers, but tomorrow, they go after the junk food industry.
Then they go after (insert name of vice here) until everyone behaves in a manner the alleged powers that be find suitable. That's not American because when you live in a state that determines what are acceptable behaviours and what are not, it's fascism.
There is a time stamp on this post, so you know that this is being written around 7:30 p.m. Turkish time and 9:30 a.m. California time.
I'm calling the house, senate and California races.
The House
At the end of the day, Democrats will win the house and the score for seats with key victories in the Pennsylvania and Ohio seats. Increased turnout for senate candidates like Robert Casey in Pennsylvania and Sherrod Brown in Ohio coupled with low GOP turnout will make these seats available.
At the end of the day it will be Dems 226, GOP 209 in the house. A 23 seat pick up for Democrats. Not bad, but beyond what some media analysts are calling for.
Races to watch: If Republican John Doolittle loses in the California second, the Democrats will win in far greater numbers than I predict.
The Senate
The Senate's not going to be such a route, but there will be some Democrat gains. I think the GOP and America will say goodbye to Senators Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania, Mike DeWine in Ohio, Lincoln Chaffee in Rhode Island and Conrad Burns in Montana.
The Democrats are going to keep all of their seats, unless California's Diane Feinstein can hold off the juggernaut Dick Mountjoy Campaign. (Insert laughs here.)
But not all Republicans will lose, just most of them. I think Michael Steele, the Republican candidate for the open Maryland Senate seat will win given his campaign's momentum of the last two weeks.
Republicans will hold off some decent challenges in Virginia and Missouri and keep the Tennessee seat being vacated by Bill Frist.
Final Score: GOP 53, Dems 47 (Lieberman counts as a Democrat and he will win by the way.)
California
My native state, the Golden State, with it's unofficial capitol of Palmdale.
Of course Arnold's going to win, but I think John Garamendi is going to join him as Lt. Governor. Incumbent Bruce McPherson will keep his seat as the Secretary of State, while Jerry Brown, good old Governor Moonbeam, will become the Attorney General.
John Chiang will become the state's controller while Bill Lockyer will become the state treasurer (I still can't believe the Antelope Valley Press endorsed Claude Parish. I know it's a Republican paper, but this guy is nuts.)
Steve Poizner will become the state's third Insurance Commissioner, despite Cruz Bustamante's clever commercials about how he promised his family to lose 70 pounds and he promises to lower your insurance rates.
I can't get into the propositions, because I am out of touch with how much ad time has been spent on all of them. I just hope and pray the California pleasure police don't pass Prop. 86, a tobacco tax that will do nothing for Californians looking for lower health care costs. Whether you smoke or not, should one group be punished because their habit or vice is unpopular? Remember, today they go after the smokers, but tomorrow, they go after the junk food industry.
Then they go after (insert name of vice here) until everyone behaves in a manner the alleged powers that be find suitable. That's not American because when you live in a state that determines what are acceptable behaviours and what are not, it's fascism.
posted by James at 7:32 PM
4 Comments:
Personally, I'm routing for the passing of the marijuana legalization in Nevada, as I think it will make Nevada absolute Gommora, and come on, who doesn't love that!!
Sen. Rits, D-confusion
That is true - as if enough things weren't legal there? But hey, the more the merrier. However I do think it will add a new element to buffets and make other table games, such as "Watch the Teletubbies" and "Look at your hand."
Exactly, and there will be new things to gamble on: How much can stoner eat? Whose highest? And the best reason at all, it would make the pain of dropping $500 at blackjack much more tolerable.
Senator Rits
D-Confusion
You'll appreciate this:
http://movies.crooksandliars.com/Colbert-GOP-Loss1.mov
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